Apple’s Duopoly Challenge

There are a lot of duopolies in the world. Coke and Pepsi. Windows and Mac. Android and iOS. Labour and Conservative.

When you have a duopoly it’s really hard to get a new entrant in to break it. Remember Virgin Cola? Remember OS/2? Remember Windows Phone? Remember the Liberal Democrats?

I was working at Microsoft for a brief period in the run up and aftermath of the launch of Windows 8, a platform that Microsoft hoped would break the Android/iOS duopoly which had emerged in the years after the launch of the iPhone. I worked in a part of Microsoft that cajoled developers into developing for our platforms. It was very hard.

Despite the knowledge that the next version of Windows would be installed on millions of devices just through the natural cycles of PC sales, developers had two platforms already to deliver touch applications: Android gave them volume and potential ad revenue (but surprisingly little in the way of app revenue); iOS gave the app revenue and advertising. Building for a third was a hard call for any dev shop, even if we offered to pay them to do it. Software is for life, not just for Christmas, and building an app for a new platform is a long-term commitment.

Without the apps, the touch side of Windows 8 didn’t happen. Without the apps comparatively few people bought form factors of Windows 8 devices that weren’t traditional laptops or desktops. Windows 8 as a thing simply didn’t do much other than become the latest of the “difficult alternate” versions of Windows, and much of the touch stuff simply disappeared by Windows 10.

I’m reminded of all of this with this weeks much leaked launch of the Apple Vision Pro, and very smartly designed, but exceptionally expensive, VR/AR headset from Cupertino.

The challenge ahead for the product I see as being quite simple: to encourage developers to build apps for it that are simultaneously useful, compelling, and unable to be done on any other platform.

That means developers building things for Apple Vision Pro rather than building things for other platforms. And that means, I think, breaking into one of at least three duopolies that exist in computing today:

• the app store duopoly of Android and iOS
• the form-factor duopoly of touch-based devices or WIMP-based devices
• the platform duopoly of web versus native app

From when I was at Microsoft, in large part because of the pandemic, I think we have seen a resurgence in the use of WIMP (windows, icons, mouse, pointer) devices, when at a point in the 2010s it looked like Mac and Windows faced an existential crisis. Working from home with all of those Teams/Zoom conversations has made many of us rely more on those types of technology than we have for years.

The balance of power across these duopolies does obviously change, but Apple seem to be talking about an entirely new computing paradigm. That may well happen, but the first stage will be winning the hearts and minds of developers caught in duopolies. And that’s not necessarily something that even the deep pockets of Apple can afford…